Dollar falls again and closes at $ 5.55 with expectations of tariff negotiations

THE dollar interrupted the sequence of four consecutive highs with expectations of a tariff agreement between Brazil and the United States. Government meeting with sectors affected by Trump’s “tariff”, an executive and legislative conciliation hearing on IOF and US inflation data have also moved the exchange rate.

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This Tuesday (15), the dollar in sight (USDBRL) ended the negotiations with R $ 5.5581, with a drop of 0.47%.

The movement detached from the trend seen abroad. Around 17h (Brasília time), the Dxyindicator that compares the dollar to a basket of six global currencies, such as euro and pound, suba 0.55%at 98,634 points.

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What did you move with the dollar today?

Expectations of Brazil’s negotiations with the United States gave the real, in the day of weakness commodities.

On Tuesday (15), the vice president and Minister of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC), Geraldo Alckminbegan the round of meetings of the Interministerial Committee of Economic and Commercial Trading and Contrameters with sectors most affected by the 50% tariff on Brazilian products to imports in the United States.

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The rate was announced by the president of the United States, Donald Trumplast week and is scheduled to take effect on August 1.

At the opening of the meeting with representatives of Brazilian agribusiness, Alckmin stated that it is the forecast of record crop in 2025 is “very important for the trade balance in the economic area. It is a sector champion of productivity and competitiveness”.

“In relation to the letter [de Donald Trump]there are questions that are not from the Executive, are questions of the judiciary. And the tripartition of power, the separation of powers is the basic stone from the rule of law, the government [Lula] There is no way to interfere, ”he said.“ But, in relation to the tariff issue, we understand that it is wrong, ”he added as he quoted the US surplus with Brazil.

Alckmin also stated that the government will work to reverse “Trump’s tariff as soon as possible, in an interview with journalists after the meetings. He also said that the request to expand the deadline for the negotiations was submitted by industry representatives.

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Yesterday (14), CNN Brazil columnist, Gustavo Uribe, announced that the government works with negotiation scenarios, and the postponement is the implementation of the new rate between 60 and 90 days as one of the alternatives.

Local investors also divided the attention with the conciliation hearing between Executive and Legislative on the collection of Financial Operations Tax (IOF), mediated by the Federal Supreme Court (STF).

The Senate President, David Alcolumbre (Brazil-AP Union)he gave up attending the hearing and will be represented by Senate Attorney General Gabrielle Tatih Pereira.

According to the minutes of the meeting released by the Supreme Court, the Senate requested a longer period for the continuity of negotiations. The hearing ended without agreement and the decision on the impasse of the tax will be of Minister Alexandre de Moraes.

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The president of Central Bank, Gabriel Galipolohe also met with the president of the House of Representatives, Hugo Motta (Republicans-PB), at a meeting outside the official agenda of the two authorities.

Dollar rises abroad

Abroad, investors responded to new inflation data in the United States. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in June, increasing the annual inflation rate to 2.7%, in line with the market expectation.

Although the CPI is not the inflationary reference for the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US Central Bank)data helps calibrate bets on US interest trajectory.

After the data, the market reduced interest-cuttings at the Fed Fed FEDERAL MARKET FEDERAL COMMITTEE (FOMC) meeting. The chance of the Fed cutting interest on 25 base points to the range of 4.00% to 4.25% per year in September fell from 58.9% (yesterday) to 52.4%. Despite the reduction, the month follows as the most likely to start the monetary loosening cycle.

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In addition, the yields of the Treasury titles, the Treasuries, surpassed the 5%level.

Already in the late afternoon, US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Indonesia. The Asian country will have a 19% rate on imports to imports in US territory. The previous rate was 32% effective from August 1.

“A big deal, for all, has just been made with Indonesia. I treated directly with its highly respected president,” Trump said in a trize publication.

According to Trump, this is a “historical” agreement that will open the entire market in the country to the US “for the first time in history.” Indonesia has committed to buying $ 15 billion in US energy, $ 4.5 billion in American agricultural products and 50 Boeing jets.

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“If there is any overflow of a country with a higher fare, this fare will be added to the fare that Indonesia is paying. We thank the people of Indonesia for their friendship and commitment to the balance of our commercial deficit,” added the White House head.

The US Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, told CNBC that the agreement with Indonesia will continue the elapse -elimination trend of exports, while imposing import tariffs, similar to the commercial structure recently announced with Vietnam.

“He announced Indonesia this morning. No tariffs there. They pay fares here, changing the asymmetry to our side. We will bring the industry back, and this will release our farmers, ranchers, fishermen and our industries,” said Lutnick.

*With information from Reuters