Puppet show. How Russia trades in the recognition of “LDNR” and whether Putin needs Donbass

The State Duma of the Russian Federation sent Russian President Vladimir Putin a proposal to recognize the independence of the so-called “LNR” and “DNR”. The head of the Kremlin promised to do “everything necessary to ensure that the life of the inhabitants of Donbass has changed for the better.”

What awaits ORDLO if their sovereignty is recognized? Will the puppet formations become independent states or become part of the Russian Federation? And why would Putin destroy the Minsk agreements, on the implementation of which he himself insisted? The site “Today” provides answers to these questions.

Putin will consider the issue of recognizing the independence of the “LDNR”

On February 15, the State Duma of the Russian Federation sent the President of Russia a proposal to recognize the independence of the so-called “LPR” and “DPR”. Vladimir Putin has not yet made an unequivocal decision, but he said that he was ready to do everything necessary to solve the problems of Donbass.

“Deputies of parliament are guided by public opinion, by the opinion of their voters. It is obvious that in our country the vast majority of people sympathize with the residents of Donbass, support them and hope that the situation there will radically change for the better for them”Putin said.

How can Russia recognize the sovereignty of its puppets

Political scientist Ruslan Bortnik believes that Russia can use the “Abkhaz scenario”.

“In 2008, Russia recognized the independence of part of the Georgian territories – Abkhazia and South Ossetia, after which it sent its troops there under the guise of peacekeepers, taking the “republics” under full control,” Bortnik says.

According to the expert, the Kremlin can use the same model in the Donbass, referring to the alleged will of the people.

“In addition, Russia can enter the Donbas under the pretext of protecting its citizens from “genocide.” After all, it’s not for nothing that 600,000 residents of the “LDNR” were given Russian passports,” says Bortnik.

Annexation of Donbass following the example of Crimea

It is worth noting that Russia’s recognition of the independence of the “LDNR” will once again violate the Helsinki Final Act of 1975, which established the principle of inviolability of borders in Europe and the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, according to which Russia undertook to guarantee the security, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. However, as cynically stated in October 2021 representative of the Russian delegation to the First Committee of the UN General Assembly Denis Lozinsky“Russia did not undertake the obligation to force a part of Ukraine to remain in its composition against the will of the local population.”

“Any accusations against Russia of violating obligations under the Budapest Memorandum are absolutely groundless. The provisions of this document do not apply to circumstances resulting from the actions of domestic political or socio-economic factors”– said the diplomat.

The same Lozinsky explained the annexation of Crimea by Russia.

“In the face of rampant national-radical elements in Ukraine and in a situation where a coup d’état with the use of force took place in the country with outside support, the realization by the population of Crimea and Sevastopol of the right to self-determination and subsequent entry into Russia became for them the only possible way to protect their vital important interests”Lozinsky said.

Recognition of “LDNR” will destroy the Minsk agreements

Political scientist Alexei Yakubin notes that Russia’s recognition of the independence of the “LDNR” will destroy the Minsk agreements, which Russia itself insists on.

“Russia publicly declares that the Donbass is the territory of Ukraine. The Minsk agreements and the Normandy format are built on this. Recognition of the independence of the LDNR will indicate that Russia is leaving Minsk and completely crosses out the agreements,” explains ” Today “Yakubin.

What will give Russia the recognition of the sovereignty of the “LDNR”

According to political scientists, the recognition of the independence of the fake republics will mean new opportunities for Russia to militarize the region. Consequently, having received the consent of the newly independent states, the Russian Federation will be able, as it were, to officially place its military bases on their territory.

By the way, the leadership of the so-called “DPR” has repeatedly stated that it plans to seek military assistance from Russia, and the deputies of the State Duma of the Russian Federation in an appeal to Putin suggested that the President of the Russian Federation hold talks with the leaders of the “LPR” to create a “legal basis for interstate relations”, which will regulate, among other things, the provision of military assistance.

Of course, Ukraine and, practically, the whole world does not recognize the independence of Donbass and will consider the deployment of Russian military bases in this region as direct aggression. But will it stop Moscow? Given the example of the annexation of Crimea, it is unlikely.

Expanding the borders of “LDNR” can lead to war

Ruslan Bortnik notes that after the recognition of the independence of the LDNR, a new round of escalation will follow. And it’s not just about Russian military bases.

“There will be a serious threat of war with Ukraine for the territories of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions controlled by it, which the LDNR want to include in its composition,” explains Bortnik.

In 2019, the so-called “LPR” and “DPR” adopted “laws” on borders, which state that the borders of the self-proclaimed republics with Ukraine correspond to the entire territory of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions in its composition. Theoretically, Russia will be able to raise the issue of restoring the borders and start a war with Ukraine.

Will Russia include “LDNR” in its composition

“The population of Donbass historically perceives the region as part of the Russian state and has been defending this position since 2014, including with weapons in their hands”– stated leader of the fake “DPR” Denis Pushilin. The same statements are regularly heard from the “leaders” of the puppet “LNR”. But does Moscow need the Donbass region as part of Russia?

Despite Putin’s statement that “the majority of Russians sympathize with the inhabitants of Donbass,” opinion polls show that an absolute minority, less than a quarter of the population of the Russian Federation, wants to see “LDNR” as part of Russia. One of the main reasons for the reluctance of Russians to unite with the Donbass is the high cost of its restoration. According to experts, the development of destroyed enterprises and infrastructure will require more than $20 billion.

“Not only the restoration of the Donbass, but also the maintenance of the full functioning of the region, as well as regular social payments to residents – all this will require huge financial injections. For Russia, joining the so-called republics is not economically profitable,” Bortnik tells us.

How Russia is speculating on the sovereignty of the “LDNR”

Ruslan Bortnik is sure that Russia is thus trying to force Ukraine to comply with the Minsk agreements.

“Russia is hinting that if Ukraine does not comply with Minsk, then it will be able to recognize the so-called LDNR,” says Bortnik.

Political scientist Vadim Karasev believes that Moscow is also trying to force the West to influence Kiev.

“Russia hopes that Ukraine’s Western partners will interpret the issue of recognizing the independence of the fake LDNR as a threat of losing Ukrainian territories if Kiev’s position in the negotiations on the Minsk agreements is not constructive and will be able to put pressure on Ukraine,” Karasev says.

Political scientist Vladimir Volya adds that the recognition of the so-called “LDNR” can be used by the Kremlin in the event that the United States refuses to provide guarantees of non-expansion of NATO to the East.

“If the US does not make concessions, Russia may use the recognition of terrorists from the LDNR as a new threat to destabilize the Donbass region,” says Volya.

Bluff price

The recognition of the so-called “LDNR”, according to political scientists, is not beneficial to Russia today. For Moscow, there are no political or economic advantages in such a decision.

“It is not beneficial for Moscow to recognize the LDNR, but it is beneficial for it to threaten Ukraine and the West with such a probability,” Bortnik summed up.

Earlier, the site “Today” reported that Speaker of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Oleg Nikolenko believes that Russia’s recognition of the fake “LDNR” will be a demonstration of its rejection of the Minsk agreements. He also noted that the self-proclaimed republics have absolutely no subjectivity, and even Russia recognizes this.

In addition, we found out why discussions about the recognition of “republics” arose during the negotiations between the Russian Federation and the United States, what people think about this in Ukraine and the self-proclaimed “DPR” and whether Putin will take such a step.