Have you already said goodbye to Merkel? But in vain! – the German Chancellor will still be in power

In Germany, the campaign ends, which should end with the elections on September 26, the formation of a new government and the retirement of Angela Merkel. Recent ratings suggest that the long-lived Chancellor’s successor, Armin Laschet, will not win over a clear majority of the electorate to personally form a government. This means that Frau Merkel will manage Germany for some time and influence the processes in the European Union.

Analysts of most Western publications, including CNN, write about this.

Rating

Ranking of the leading German parties as of Friday evening, September 24

As of 24 September, after the final televised debate of the leaders of the Bundestag parties

• The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) has 25% support and its rating has been standing still for several days;
• The Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) began to win back its positions and now has 22%;
• Pariah Soyuz-90 / The Greens can still claim only 16%;
• The Free Democratic Party, which represents business, has almost 12%;
• The extreme right “Alternative for Germany” is content with 11%.

Who will negotiate

If the parties show such a result on election day, as a result, the candidate for the post of chancellor from the SPD, the Minister of Finance of the Federal Republic of Germany Olaf Scholz (by the way, the winner of all televised debates), will have to negotiate with the CDU candidate – the Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia Armin Lašet, or with the leader of the Greens, a member of the Bundestag Annalena Berbock… How quickly they divide the ministerial portfolios will determine how quickly Angela Merkel will hand over her affairs and go to rest.

Who is the new German Chancellor – Armin Laschet (left), Olaf Scholz (center) or Annalena Berbock (right)?

“A coalition government seems inevitable, and a tripartite alliance is highly likely. And for the first time this will happen in Germany at the national level, which is a reflection of the growing fragmentation of German politics, which is also taking place in other parts of Europe and beyond.“, – notes the edition of The Guardian.

Will there be a place for populists too?

In the negotiation maelstrom, theoretically, all parties can be drawn that will overcome the 5% passing barrier. Even the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany, analysts say.

“The real coalition is red-green-red (between social democrats, “greens” and “leftists”) or red-green-yellow (between social democrats, “greens” and liberals from the Free Democratic Party). Continue the “grand coalition” “(between the CDU and the Social Democrats) none of the partners have the strength; for Laschet, this would be political suicide, and not only at the federal level, but also from the point of view of maintaining the premiership in North Rhine-Westphalia“- Berlin political scientist, member of the Social Democratic Party Dmitry Stratievsky noted in a commentary for the Meduza portal.

Based on the history of the creation of the coalition after the elections in 2017, when the negotiations lasted six months (and this with the unshakable authority of Merkel), an even more protracted process can be expected here. This means that Angela Merkel will remain chancellor for some time.

If we recall the Israeli scenario, where there was no stable coalition for the past few years and literally every six months there were new elections to the Knesset, then Frau Merkel may be delayed for a long time. It is highly likely that the Germans will celebrate the New Year under Merkel.