The most powerful man in the Bosnian part of the Republic of Srpska celebrates his victory even before the election. “I have come to share the joy of successes and victories with my fellow citizens,” announced Serbian leader Milorad Dodik to the frenetically cheering supporters of his SNSD in the Laktasi sports hall: “Long live Republika Srpska, long live Serbia, long live Russia! “
Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina, dispute over votes in a divided multi-ethnic state. 7,275 candidates are fighting for hundreds of seats in the most complicated ballot in the world in the simultaneously increasing parliamentary, presidential, local, special district and cantonal elections: every ethnic group, every entity elects its own representatives separately for the national institutions.
From election to election, the situation in the Balkan state, which is plagued by corruption, party politics and migration, seems to be getting worse. Nevertheless, Bosnia’s shrewd political rulers have little to fear from a lesson from the voters. Whether Muslim Bosniaks, Bosnian Serbs or Croats: 30 years after the outbreak of the Bosnian War (1992-1995), they mostly tick the names of the familiar agitators.
They build on the fear of others.
Analyst and psychologist Srdjan Puhalo
The election according to ethnic principles means that in each ethnic group “those candidates who rely the most on nationalistic tones have the greatest popularity,” analyst and psychologist Srdjan Puhalo told the Tagesspiegel in Banja Luka: “They build on fear the others, to the fear of a new war, to the fear that the security of their own ethnic group is threatened.”
The standstill in the state labyrinth can also be explained with the valve of emigration: “Those in power are happy that the dissatisfied are leaving – and are no longer causing them problems.”
In the last few weeks, SNSD boss Dodik has once again pulled out all the nationalist electoral registers for his planned move from Bosnia’s three-man state presidency to the presidential chair of the Republic of Srpska. The Serb leader announced that “we cannot have textbooks and schools in common with Muslims”.
Then he confessed that he didn’t eat anything on trips to Sarajevo and only drank from the water bottle he had brought with him: “I’m afraid that someone could poison me”.
During his election campaign visit to Moscow, Dodik assured himself of Vladimir Putin’s support and announced another friendly football game against Russia in November: Outraged, several Bosnian national footballers declared that they would boycott the propaganda kick that Dodik had engineered.
Dodik wants the independence of the Republic of Srpska
Even the state parliament in the Republic of Srpska refused to support his campaign against the appointment of the new German ambassador in Sarajevo. But this week Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban drummed the election drum for his political friend via video message.
In 30 years at the latest, the Republic of Srpska will be an “independent state,” the secessionist once again pompously announced during the election campaign. But the otherwise so self-confident puller of the strings seemed unusually nervous on the home stretch of his dogged dispute over votes.
Because the permanent winner could lose an election for the first time: According to a recent survey by a Belgrade institute, the SNSD boss is two percent behind the opposition candidate Jelena Trivic (PDP) – and his party could also lose the majority in the state parliament.
Stumbling on the home stretch
Dodik has every reason to be nervous, says analyst Puhalo, naming three factors that could have a negative impact on his election results: the local elections in Banja Luka that his SNSD lost in 2020, the West’s “very strong anger” at its ties with Moscow, and the Economic situation: “Dodik has to contend with an enemy he can do little against – inflation and recession.”
“Who wins – Dodik or Trivic?” is the excited headline in the newspaper “Euro Blic” in Banja Luka, which speaks of a choice of fate and direction. Actually, the office of Deputy President only has a “protocol function”, according to Puhalo: “But where Dodik is, there is power.
It’s less about the office itself and more about demonstrating that he’s a winner, whom not only his party but also the Republic of Srpska has to obey without question.” Dodik could still be head of government if he were defeated change in the state: “But if he loses the election, he would show himself vulnerable – and his aura would crumble.”
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Source: Tagesspiegel
I work as a news website author and mostly cover the opinion section. I have been writing since I was a teenager, and have always enjoyed telling stories. I studied journalism at university and loved every minute of it. After graduating, I decided to move to London and take up a position with a Global Happenings. It has been an incredible experience, learning about all sorts of different cultures and meeting some amazing people. My goal is to continue learning and growing in my career so that I can provide readers with the best possible content.
