The tone was almost martial. On the evening of the first round of regional elections, Marine Le Pen had urged her voters to ” mobilize their efforts to snatch the victories that France needs in the second round ”. The president of the National Rally even surprised commentators with her surprisingly harsh words for her sympathizers who gave in to abstention, which she called “With a start” :
“Taking five minutes of your time to make the voice of the people heard, this people who are suffering and who aspire to renewal, to put forward your ideas, is not only a right, it is a duty for all citizens! “
And to conclude his speech, with enthusiasm:
“Anything is possible as long as you decide! Next Sunday, come and vote! After having undergone months of restriction of your freedoms, I call on you to deconfin your ideas and to rectify the result of this first round. At the patriotic ballot boxes! “
The results of the second round have, as we have seen, showered the hopes of the president of the RN and her allies. No region, no department has fallen into the hands of the extreme right. Whenever necessary, the Republican front once again did its job.
A start, what a start?
But did the jump take place despite everything? Did RN voters go to the polls more in the second round than in the first? To find out, the “Obs” set about comparing, not the percentages of votes obtained (which may vary according to the number of voters), but the number of votes obtained in the first round and in the second round, for all the candidates who managed to hold on – there were 49 of them. Then we calculated the percentage increase (or decrease) in the number of ballots collected.
And the result is final for the National Rally: out of the 12 candidates (or allies) of the party who managed to hold on in the second round, four saw their number of votes drop! The fall is even sometimes severe, as for Hervé Juvin, in the Pays de la Loire (-13.1%), or Jordan Bardella (-11.47% of the vote), in Ile-de-France.
For six other RN candidates (and consort), the number of votes increases well, but very slightly, from 1.34% to 7.74%, when the PS, LR or EELV candidates from the same regions see their scores increase by 15% at 67%!
The only exceptions to these very mixed scores: the RN candidate in the Grand Est, Laurent Jacobelli, who saw his number of votes increase by 27.56%, thanks, very probably, to a good transfer of the votes of the voters of Florian Philippot of the first tour and the candidate of the Popular Right, supported by the RN, Thierry Mariani, in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, who, at least in part, benefited from a small burst of participation, allowing him to see the number ballots in his name increased by 24.78%. But, according to Bruno Jeanbart, vice-president of OpinionWay who spoke on CNews, the increase in participation in the Paca region mainly benefited Renaud Muselier, 56% of new voters having cast their vote for the LR candidate, against 28% only for Thierry Mariani. Worse, 5% of the voters of Thierry Mariani voted Renaud Muselier in the second round, according to the pollster.
These increases also remain, once again, lower than those of the LR and EELV candidates of these two regions: 32.51% more votes for LR Jean Rottner and 48.89% for the Green Eliane Romani in the Grand Est. and… 90.93% additional votes for LR Renaud Muselier in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, which therefore almost doubles the number of votes obtained in the first round.
Evolution of the number of votes between the two rounds
The candidates of the left sign the most beautiful progressions
Our infographic highlights one of the biggest weaknesses of the National Rally: the total lack of a reserve of votes in the second round, in almost all of the regions. But also the absence of a burst of participation, as Marine Le Pen hoped, except in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, but which did not turn to the benefit of the candidate supported by the RN.
It is quite different for the left, socialist or green candidates, who, conversely, benefited from an excellent carryover of votes and signed the best progress between the two rounds. The records are held by the Greens: 93.80% progress for Matthieu Orphelin in Pays de la Loire, 136.35% for Fabienne Grébert and… 179.79% for Julien Bayou in Ile-de-France! The whole thing, while they were in a triangular or quadrangular, and not in a duel, like Renaud Muselier.
Behind, the Socialists all improved their score, from 31.31% to 67.21%! The Green with the least progress is Karima Delli, in Hauts-de-France. Her number of votes increased by 17.82%, but without carryover, since the candidate led a union list from the first round! In the same region, the deputy RN Sébastien Chenu saw his score increase by only 6.99%… La Verte thus gleaned nearly 45,000 more votes between the two rounds, against less than 23,000 more for the candidate RN.
LREM does even worse than the RN
“When I look at myself I feel sorry, when I compare myself I console myself. ” Marine Le Pen could, in this election, adopt the famous maxim, often attributed to the French diplomat Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord. Because, if the weak progress of the National Rally must have disappointed the president of the party, who no doubt hoped to have galvanized her troops with her speech, that of the LREM candidates is even more catastrophic.
Imagine: of the eight LREM candidates who managed to hold on to the second round, seven saw their number of ballots collected reduced! Many voters of the majority, having visibly recorded the crushing defeat of the majority in the first round, no longer made the trip to the second round. The figures are harsh: 28.79% fewer ballots in his name for François de Rugy, in Pays de la Loire, 12.13% less for Laurent Saint-Martin in Ile-de-France… The only candidate to save the furniture… is not even LREM! This is the various right Brigitte Klinkert (ex-UDF, ex-UMP, ex-LR), supported by LREM and the MoDem, which manages to improve its number of votes by 15.75%!
It must be said that the presidential majority suffers from the same evil as the RN: it is “full” (relative) of votes through its first-round alliances (with the MoDem in particular), but does not benefit from any carry over of votes. And all the less since arriving almost every time in the last position of the candidates remaining in the second round, it is difficult to obtain the slightest support.
I am an author at Global happenings and I mostly cover automobile news. In my time working in the automotive industry, I have developed a keen interest in the latest developments and trends. My writing skills have also allowed me to share my knowledge with others through articles and blog posts.
