Riddle about Seehofer’s number in the millions

The irritation was great: 300,000 to five million people would soon flee Afghanistan – Federal Interior Minister Horst Seehofer is said to have made this forecast at a meeting with the Bundestag parliamentary group chairmen at the beginning of the week. The German Press Agency reported it late on Monday evening, citing its own information.

The numbers were in the room, classifications, additions or at least confirmations or denials were initially missing. But where do these numbers come from and what is true of the forecast that Seehofer is attributed to?

Doubts quickly arise. About a day after the alleged statement, the migration researcher Gerald Knaus responded with massive criticism: “It’s amazing where this number could come from, it is out of thin air,” he said on RTL. It is a mystery to him how people should leave the country when all borders, including those of neighboring countries, are closed, explained the expert from the “European Stability Initiative”. He also spoke of “imaginary ghosts of mass migration that will not take place in this form”.

But is the Federal Minister of the Interior being guided by such “imaginary ghosts”? Seehofer’s house is at least much more reserved – and refers to a diffuse situation after the coup of the Taliban. on Daily mirror-A spokeswoman for the Ministry of the Interior explains that the dynamic development in Afghanistan “does not allow a reliable forecast of the magnitude of the migration” and adds: “The wide range of very different figures shows that there are currently no reliable figures or forecasts.”

How the alleged quote could come about despite the opaque data, remains a nebulous one. Seehofer himself has not yet commented on the figures in the room. His ministry is keeping an eye on the situation in Afghanistan and the neighboring states affected by the refugee movement, the spokeswoman said.

Pro Asylum criticizes unnecessary debate

The human rights organization Pro Asyl is meanwhile not very surprised by the report on the alleged quote from the Federal Minister of the Interior. “Mr. Seehofer has already attracted attention several times in the past few years with statements of magnitudes that ultimately did not come true,” says legal policy advisor Wiebke Judith dem Daily mirror. For example, the CSU politician had already “fueled fear with family reunification in 2018” with massively exaggerated numerical forecasts, which ultimately did not come true.

In any case, Pro Asyl criticizes the debate about the amount of refugees as speculative: “Politics is good when it acts actively and does not debate figures,” explains Judith. “The political will is crucial. And we in Germany have enough capacity. ”This applies not least to the current case of the Afghan capital. “The order of the day is to save as many people as possible, especially from Kabul,” said Judith.

However, according to the organization, hopes for extensive and successful rescue operations are limited. “We fear that people will not even get out of Afghanistan because the Taliban control all borders,” says Judith. A classic escape route from Afghanistan leads via Iran and Turkey to Greece. But on this route the border regimes were severely tightened. Nevertheless, Judith emphasizes: “Europe can take in refugees. The big drama of 2015, when thousands of people lost their lives while fleeing, must not happen this time. “

According to various media reports, several thousand people have already been flown out of Afghanistan with German help in the past few days, including numerous people of Afghan nationality. “Since Sunday we have flown 500 people out of Kabul and brought them to safety. And we want to continue this in terms of quantity in the coming days, ”said Federal Foreign Minister Heiko Maas on Wednesday evening. In view of this dramatic situation, the now burgeoning migration debate, as pushed by Union Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet, seems absurd.