The implementation of a red zone in the province of Bergamo would have reduced the number of deaths by around 4,500 from 1 March to 30 April 2020. This is indicated by the a posteriori analyzes of the data of the Covid-19 epidemic in that period of time, carried out by the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for Calculation Applications ‘M.Picone’, of the National Research Council (Cnr).
“The estimate is based on the time sequences of the incidence of positives to the molecular test for the SarsCov-2 virus at the provincial level, made public by the Civil Protection. Since the data on deaths has never been made public at the provincial level, despite the numerous appeals from scientists, some of them at Nobel Prize level, the data at an aggregate level have been used for them”, notes the expert. “The estimate – Sebastiani specifies – is also based on the results of the only public study with random sampling, carried out by Istat and the Ministry of Health in 2020. The aforementioned estimate of the number of deaths obviously uses data not available if we had found each other really before March 1. Not having the data available for the last weeks of February, I can’t say if this estimate could be made if we really were before March 1”.
The analysis of the time sequences of the provinces of Lombardy also indicates an “anomalous behavior of the province of Lodi, the only one in Lombardy where, starting from February 22, 2020, a red zone was implemented in several municipalities”, observes the mathematician. “In fact, while in all the other Lombard provinces, beyond the daily and weekly fluctuations, the trend is first increasing and, after reaching the maximum around March 24, it becomes decreasing due to the effect of the lockdown implemented in nationally, for the province of Lodi the trend is always decreasing already starting from March 1. Although the data available do not allow it to be demonstrated from a statistical point of view, I think – concludes Sebastiani – that this anomalous behavior is not accidental , but that it is due to the implementation of the red zone”.
Source: Ansa
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