As happened recently for Slovenia and Ukraine, a trend reversal is underway in Italy: after the recent slowdown in the growth of Covid-19 cases, in recent days there has been a phase of acceleration, with a wave of new cases that seem to come from Eastern countries and that in Italy has so far mainly affected the regions of the North-East. This is what emerges from the analysis of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for the Applications of Calculation ‘M. Picon’, of the National Research Council (Cnr).
“In Italy, both in terms of the percentage of molecular test positives and total positives, in the last few days there has been a reversal of the trend, passing from a slowdown in growth to an acceleration of growth”, notes Sebastiani. “Daily admissions to intensive care – he adds – grow linearly, with an initial growth acceleration trend; the daily death curve, which was subject to weak growth, shows an acceleration in growth.
The regions where the incidence in the last week increased by at least 30% compared to the previous one, apart from Sardinia, where however the values are low, are all in the north-east: Friuli Venezia Giulia, Veneto, the two autonomous provinces of Trento and Bolzano and the Marches. The three worst situations for hospitalizations are also Friuli Venezia Giulia, the autonomous province of Bolzano and Marche. This is evidence that, in addition to other factors, such as mass gatherings, the flow of inflows across the border with Slovenia is also relevant “.
According to Sebastiani, the rise in the curves is to be linked to the situation observed in some Eastern European countries where the percentage of vaccinated in the population is very low. “The reversal of the trend from a slowdown in growth to an acceleration of growth observed recently in some European countries, such as Slovenia and Ukraine, is confirmed in recent days in these countries and is also observed in numerous other countries, such as Austria, Belarus, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Italy, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Czech Republic and Turkey “. Growth is also accelerating in France and Macedonia, while it continues to slow down in Russia and Serbia fluctuates at high values. In the United Kingdom, the expert continues, a drop from a peak is observed, but in the last four months there have been three (maximum) peaks, of which this is the last, with a long-scale trend of increasing incidence. The incidence has also reached a peak and is now decreasing in Croatia, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia and Moldova (in the latter, however, there is a slowdown).
Here are the incidence values in European countries: Serbia is in first place with 455 cases per 100,000 inhabitants; followed by Lithuania (433), Montenegro (415), Austria (400), Greece (395), Estonia (389), United Kingdom and Ireland (387), Holland (384), Ukraine (368), Czech Republic (352), Latvia (342), Slovakia (332), Bulgaria (329), Slovenia (319), Romania (317), Turkey (234), Germany (225), Moldova (208), Croatia (201), Poland (195), Denmark (194), Russia (189), Luxembourg (185), Hungary (182), Switzerland (172), Norway (170), Bosnia (162), Macedonia (159), United States (153), Iceland (151) , Belarus (146), Albania (108), Finland (89), France (72), Portugal (65), Italy (58), Sweden (55), Belgium (50), Brazil (33), Spain (31) , Kosovo (6).
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Source From: Ansa
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