One to two million immediate deaths and around 300 million people at risk of lethal consequences from radiation: this is the scenario of an attack on nuclear weapons silos in the US hinterland, according to the simulation developed by the security expert Sebastien Philippe, of Princeton University. The results are published exclusively by Scientific American magazine, as part of a special issue dedicated to the 1,500 billion dollar plan with which the United States intends to renew its atomic arsenal.
The plan includes the modernization of intercontinental ballistic missiles and the 450 launch facilities (silos) present in Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, Montana and North Dakota. Already in 1976 and 1988, the journal Scientific American had published studies regarding the possible consequences of a nuclear attack on these infrastructures, calculated with relatively simple models that considered the average seasonal winds. The new study carried out by Sebastien Philippe offers a more realistic scenario with a level of detail never achieved before, thanks to more sophisticated models and higher resolution meteorological data updated to 2021.
In addition to calculating the number of potential victims, the model evaluates how the consequences might vary with changing weather patterns, which American locations would be most at risk, and what the worst-case scenario might be for different locations.
The new maps show that almost the entire population of the US states adjacent to those hit by the attack and the most populated areas of Canada, as well as the northern part of Mexico, could be at risk of lethal fallout, depending on the weather conditions at the time of the attack.
In an accompanying editorial, Scientific American calls for the United States to abandon upgrading its nuclear weapons, especially silo-launched missiles, demonstrating that it has learned the lessons of the 20th century.
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