If the global warming will continue at a rate similar to that observed over the last 20 years, i glaciers of the Alps are destined to halve by 2050, losing approximately 46% of their volume; a percentage that could rise to 65% if we consider the trend of the last 10 years alone. The prediction comes from the study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters and led by the Swiss University of Lausanne, which developed very accurate simulations thanks to algorithms based on Artificial Intelligence.
At the same time, the retreat of glaciers will leave increasingly larger areas of rock faces exposed, a phenomenon that will increase the risk of landslidesalthough the erosion rate of the Alpine mountains is much lower than 10,000 years ago: this is what a second study published in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters and led by the University of Utrecht in the Netherlands states, which underlines the impact of these events on mountain communities.
Unlike other simulations, which produce estimates that reach the end of the century, researchers led by Samuel Cook of the University of Lausanne focused on a more limited period, in order to better understand the relevance of these phenomena already in the short term. According to the results obtained, even if global warming were to stop completely now, the Alps will still lose at least a third of their glaciers (34%) by 2050.
A very optimistic scenario and far from reality: “The data used to build the scenarios stops at 2022, which was followed by an exceptionally hot year,” explains Cook. “It is therefore likely that the situation will be much worse.” The most realistic projection, in fact, produced by imagining a scenario without major changes compared to the present, shows that the volume of ice that has disappeared will be around 46%, about half, with the possibility that this percentage will further rise up to 65% if the The trend in greenhouse gas emissions will be similar to the last 10 years.
These forecasts are in line with that released last summer by Greenpeace Italia and the Italian Glaciological Committee, at the conclusion of the first stage of the expedition on the Forni glacier, in the Stelvio National Park: according to the researchers, up to 80% of the Alpine glaciers Italians risk disappearing by 2060.
The Alps are also the protagonists of the study led by Daniel Draebing of the University of Utrecht, who discovered that the erosion of the rock faces of these mountains has drastically decreased compared to around 10,000 years ago: for example, for the Swiss valley of Hungerli it has An erosion rate of 1.2-1.4 millimeters per year has been calculated in the distant past, while the current rate based on data collected between 2016 and 2019 is between 0.02 and 0.08 millimetres.
According to the researchers, this notable drop in the rate of erosion is due to the combination of several factors: the increase in fractures in the rocks caused by the alternation between temperatures below and above zero, accompanied by the thawing of the permafrost and the adaptation of the landscape to smaller amount of ice. Furthermore, the seasonal snow cover also plays a role which, if abundant, insulates the underlying rock face, delaying the freezing and thawing processes.
The results indicate that, overall, small landslides have become more frequent, while devastating large events are much rarer. “Due to climate change, glaciers and permafrost will disappear and frost cracks will decrease: this will, in the long term, result in decreased erosion rates,” says Draebing. “However, in the short term, retreating glaciers and thawing permafrost will increase erosion rates and the risk of rockfall – adds the researcher – something that mountain communities will have to adapt to in the near future.”
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I am a journalist with over 6 years of experience working in the news industry. I currently work as an author for Global Happenings, and my coverage focuses on Technology news. I have written for various publications, including Reuters, The New York Times and The Guardian.
