Coinciding with the approach of the peak of the current solar cycle, our star is becoming particularly hyperactive: continues to increase the number of sunspots that dot its surface, and the recorded figures are significantly higher than expected.
“It’s a cycle that is proving to be much more active than previously thought. when it started, in 2019has certainly exceeded expectations“, Mauro Messerotti, professor of Space Meteorology at the University of Trieste, tells ANSA. So much so that theThe peak activity period will arrive early: “The peak will be achieved already in the last months of 2024 – adds Messerotti – or in the early months of 2025“.
According to data provided by the Space Weather Prediction Center of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), already May 2024 the number monthly average of sunspotsarrived at 172has exceeded the maximum figure recorded during the peak of the previous cycle, which in February 2014 had reached 146.
TO July the monthly average rose to 196compared to an expected number of 106 and, according to data from the site SpaceWeather.com, August promises to exceed this number again, with a provisional monthly average of 217.
“Initial predictions have proven wrong because they reflect the fact that we do not yet fully understand solar activity.” comments Messerotti. The record, at least since direct measurements have been available, remains for now the prerogative of the 19th cycle: the average monthly number of spots detected in October 1957 arrived at 359.
Sunspots are caused by concentrations of magnetic fields, so strong that they prevent internal heat from reaching the surface: in fact, they have a temperature of about 3,700 degrees, compared to over 5,700 of the surrounding surface. Because of their instability, sunspots can cause coronal mass ejections, the so-called CMEs, and solar flares.
Therefore, their presence in high numbers increases the probability of geomagnetic storms on Earth, but not necessarily of high intensity. “This is a commonplace,” Messerotti points out: “the most intense geomagnetic storms have been recorded in the ascending phase of the cycle and in the descending phase, and not at the peak.”
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Source: Ansa
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