Calabria is currently the region closest to the yellow zone due to the values relating to hospitalizations in ordinary wards and intensive care, while Lombardy, Marche, Veneto and Liguria could reach yellow zone values in the coming weeks. This is indicated by the analyzes of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for the Applications of Calculation ‘M. Picon’, of the National Research Council (Cnr), based on epidemiological data from Civil Protection and on employment in hospitals provided by ‘National Agency for Regional Health Services (Agenas).
“The Calabria has exceeded the threshold of 10% for intensive care (it is about 11%) with a growth trend, while it is at 14.5% for the ordinary wards, where for 9 days it has undergone sudden linear growth with an equal increase rate at about 0.39% per day. Consequently – observes the expert – by next Tuesday (the day to which the weekly monitoring of Friday usually refers) it is expected to be over the thresholds for the yellow zone “.
As for the other four regions approaching the yellow zone, “in Lombardy admissions to ordinary wards are approximately 14%, a linear increase in the last two weeks with an increase rate of approximately 0.30% per day. Consequently – Sebastiani observes – in the first days of next week it is expected that the threshold of 15% will be exceeded. “Again in Lombardy, the employment of intensive care is about 8%, in linear growth in the last two weeks and with a rate of increase of about 0.30% per day. So “between the end of next week and the beginning of the next the region should cross the 10% threshold. In conclusion – he notes – on Tuesday 19th Lombardy should have the numbers from the yellow zone “.
In the Walk the occupation of the intensive care wards is about 10.5%, with an increasing trend, and in the ordinary wards about 10.5%, with a linear growth in the last ten days and a rate of about 0.29% per day: “If the latter remained unchanged, it would lead in just over 15 days to over the 15% threshold, and therefore to yellow zone numbers”.
In Veneto intensive care employment is about 12%, with a growth trend, while it is 9.5% in the ordinary wards, with linear growth in the last two weeks and a rate of about 0.31% per day: “If remained unchanged, it would bring over the 15% threshold in just under three weeks “.
In Liguria intensive care units are occupied for about 11.5%, with a growing trend, and ordinary wards for about 10%, with a linear growth trend in the last 15 days and an increase rate of about 0.26 % per day. “If the latter remained unchanged, it would take the region beyond the limits of the yellow zone in about three weeks.”
Braking of hospitalizations in Bolzano and Friuli, ‘situations that require a lot of attention’
There is a tendency to slow down the growth, if not decrease, of hospitalizations in Friuli Venezia Giulia and in the autonomous province of Bolzano, which could therefore avoid entering the orange zone, while in Lazio a flattening of the curves of the hospitalizations is observed. , Sebastiani again points out.
Signs of change in the Friuli Venezia Giulia, currently in the yellow zone, with a slowdown in the growth of occupations in ordinary wards (to about 22%) and the slight decrease in those in intensive care (to about 14%). “It does not therefore seem – says the mathematician – that this region is moving towards the orange zone”.
The situation is similar in the autonomous province of Bolzano, where in the last three days the curve of the ordinary wards shows signs of slowing growth. Currently hospitalizations are about 19% and about 13% respectively in the ordinary and intensive care wards. Finally, the autonomous province of Trento should be monitored, in which the occupation of the ordinary wards is around 10% and 9% in the intensive care ones, with a growth trend in both curves, albeit slow.
In Lazio, in the last 3-5 days both curves of hospitalizations show a flattening: to about 11% and about 10% respectively in the ordinary and intensive care wards. This, Sebastiani observes, “will probably allow this region to avoid entering the yellow zone in the immediate future. Attention must still be high, given the rapid changes, such as that which recently occurred in Calabria”.
It is holding back the growth of ICU admissions and deaths
In the last week there has been a slowdown in the growth in admissions to intensive care and in deaths, continues Sebastiani. “While the curve of the percentage of molecular test positives and that of total positives continue to grow in a de facto linear way, that of daily admissions to intensive care and that of deaths show a slowing trend in growth in the last week, as put highlighted by the analysis of the weekly percentage differences – notes Sebastiani – The last two quantities are more important than the first two since they are not affected by the variations in the number of daily tests and involve the most serious forms of the disease “.
The latter, he notes, “are able to contain well, but not totally, both for the current, large but limited value of vaccination coverage (about 75%) and for the presence of other factors in vaccinated subjects, such as for example comorbidities “. The slowdown, the expert continues, “is however also confirmed at the positive level” on the basis of the “downward trend, on a two-week scale, in the number of provinces in which the incidence has increased by more than 40% in the last seven days compared to the previous seven days “.
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Source From: Ansa
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