Protests in Karakalpakstan: when the revolution will break out in post-Soviet Asia

While the progressive world is developing in a democratic direction, and Ukraine, shedding blood in the war with Russia, retains its freedoms, the former Asian republics of the USSR continue to slide into a dictatorship, which, in order to retain power, willingly washes itself with the blood of its citizens. In January, 257 people were killed in anti-government protests in Kazakhstan. And in early July, footage of the blood-drenched streets of the Uzbek city of Nukus, where people opposed the rewriting of the Constitution, spread around the world.

The site “Segodnya” figured out when a new democratic country might appear in “Soviet Asia”.

Uzbekistan

On July 1-2, in the largest republic of Uzbekistan, Karakalpakstan, mass protests were held against the introduction of amendments to the Constitution that would deprive the sovereign region of its legal status.

Amendments to the Constitution also concerned an increase in the presidential term from five to seven years, and in general, the rewriting of the Basic Law of the state made it possible for the current head of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, to be elected for two more terms in a row. This item did not particularly excite the citizens of the country, which has had only two presidents since independence in 1991. But the loss of republican status brought thousands of people to the streets of several large cities of Karakalpakstan.

According to the Ferghana.ru news agency, the Prosecutor General’s Office of Uzbekistan stated that the protesters seized weapons from one of the military posts at the entrance to Nukus, and during the riots, a MAN truck was set on fire near a cafe, a KamAZ truck in front of the central mosque in the old city, and a farmer’s wagon in the Shumanai district of the republic. The bridge over the Dostlik canal near the Nukus city sports complex, as well as many buildings and structures in Nukus, were heavily damaged. In general, according to the statements of local authorities, the protesters “made an attempt to seize state institutions and thus split the society.”

In order to avoid this very split, the Uzbek authorities decided to brutally suppress the protest.

As a result, video footage of the blood-drenched streets of the city spread around the world. According to official information, 18 people were killed during the suppression of the protest, including several security officials. From Nukus itself, there are reports of 150 dead and the beginning of total arrests of everyone who went to the rally on July 1-2.

A state of emergency has been introduced in Uzbekistan due to protests. It will operate from July 3 to August 2 on the territory of Karakalpakstan. As of July 5, there is no Internet in the capital of the autonomous republic, most ATMs are not working, there are huge queues at working terminals. It is impossible to pay with a bank card, buy a train ticket.

The president

Personally, Shavkat Mirziyoyev tried to beautifully get out of the bloody history – he decided not to deprive Karakalpakstan of its republican status, especially since against the background of what happened, no one noticed a slight criticism of his desire to gain a foothold in power for another 14 years. Very quickly, he found those responsible for the death of people on the square – the developers of changes to the constitutional articles.

Mirziyoyev flew to Nukus and talked to local residents on camera

After the bloody dispersal of the demonstrators on the evening of July 2, Mirziyoyev flew to Karakalpakstan, where he first of all respected the elders. Then, speaking before the deputies of the national parliament from the republic, he reproached the politicians for keeping silent about the dissatisfaction of citizens with the draft amendments to the Constitution.

“You yourself led all this, initiated it yourself, signed it yourself, spoke out and approved it yourself. I’m always open. Why didn’t you call and say that people are unhappy?” the President asked.

There was silence in response, writes Fergana.ru.

According to Mirziyoyev, the footage of the blood-drenched streets of Nukus is fake. According to him, it’s just the red paint that was used to color the water in the water cannons used to disperse the demonstrators. At the same time, the authorities do not deny the presence of human victims and those injured during the protests, and the video footage shows that the water in the water cannons is uncolored.

Opinion

Experts disagreed whether the protests in Karakalpakstan could become an impetus for the emergence of a democratic regime in the Asian post-Soviet space.

Uzbek opposition politician Pulat Akhunov told Reuters that the forceful dispersal of the republic’s residents falls on national grounds. And this, as you know, is an explosive mixture.

“The situation can completely get out of control. It will not be about the status of Karakalpakstan, but about the conflict between Karakalpaks and Uzbeks. This is the most dangerous,” said the exiled politician.

The fact that the situation is not easy is indicated by the fact that the authorities imposed a curfew (from 21:00 to 07:00) for one month, until 2 August. Residents were advised not to take to the streets unless absolutely necessary, as well as banned mass gatherings and restricted entry into the autonomous republic.

Human rights activists believe that Shavkat Mirziyoyev cares about his image in the international arena, and therefore he can go to an international investigation into the possible abuse of power by law enforcement officers during the dispersal of the protest.

“Using the presence of Uzbekistan in the UN Human Rights Council and Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s desire to have a positive image in the international community, he is simply obliged to allow international independent experts to investigate the events in Karakalpakstan. If he makes an adequate decision, he still has the opportunity to correct mistakes, which can still be corrected,” Nadezhda Atayeva, president of the Human Rights in Central Asia Association, told Radio Ozodlik.

The situation in Asia

“In Karakalpakstan, this is a continuation of the Kazakh winter. More than 95% of the language of the Karakalpaks coincides with Kazakh. We have a lot in common, we are practically one people. Many of them work in Kazakhstan. They saw how the land protests and the January rallies took place. I see many similar moments in their protest. There are no such protests in the mainland of Uzbekistan and there won’t be any in the near future. Thousands of so-called anti-Chinese rallies took place across Kazakhstan in 2016 against the sale of land to foreigners. In January of this year, there were the most massive in the history of modern Kazakhstan. Then hundreds of thousands of people came out against the dictatorship for regime change”– said “Today” Aidos Sadykov, head of the largest opposition channel BACE in Kazakhstan.

According to the oppositionist, the Central Asian peoples have long been ready to fight against the dictatorship. However, they are in difficult conditions, and now it is difficult to predict the outcome and timing of this struggle.

“Three revolutions took place in Kyrgyzstan. Dictators, ministers, and security officials were driven out. In Kyrgyzstan, compared to other countries in the region, there is relative democracy. In Kazakhstan, the people are also ready to fight the dictatorship. Yes, after the mass repressions there is a slight lull. strikes. So far they are not as large as in January, but this is the calm before the storm. The Karakalpak protests are different in their meaning, and they, of course, take place in much more difficult conditions. These are national liberation protests. They are not fighting for regime change in Uzbekistan – they are fighting to expand autonomy, to become full-fledged people. They want to force the authorities of Uzbekistan to respect the agreements – the Constitution of Uzbekistan previously guaranteed them free exit from the country. This was enshrined in the 1993 treaties. But it will be difficult for them to fight“, Sadykov noted.

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