Usually quick to accuse Moscow, the White House remains circumspect. “We have no definitive conclusion on what happened”, said John Kirby, spokesman for the US National Security Council, on Tuesday evening. It was almost 3 a.m. on the night of June 6 when the Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric plant exploded. The huge dam that held back the waters of the Dnieper in the Kherson region gave way: 80 towns threatened, tens of thousands of inhabitants already evacuated. “We are still trying to understand what happened”, continues John Kirby. According to NBC News, Joe Biden may soon declassify intelligence indicating Russian responsibility for the attack…
For the EU, on the other hand, there is no ambiguity. “Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s critical civilian infrastructure reached an unprecedented level today with the destruction of the dam”denounced Tuesday evening its high representative Josep Borrell, who does not seem to doubt the responsibility of the Kremlin and speaks of a “desperate act”, “irresponsible and totally unacceptable”.
“We recall that attacks against critical civilian infrastructure can constitute war crimes. »
The hypothesis of an accident ruled out
If doubts remain about the origin of the explosion, it is not only because the two belligerents accuse each other of it: both have to lose in the destruction of the dam. Thus, the damage considerably complicates a possible breakthrough of Ukrainian troops in the direction of Crimea. “I see almost nothing near or far that benefits Ukraine in the case. Another destroyed infrastructure, another electricity production tool on land, more suffering for Ukrainian civilians, a limitation of Ukrainian offensive and logistical options”, adds Stéphane Audrand, independent French consultant in international risks. The dam was linked to a road bridge which could have “to become a major logistical axis in the event of an offensive”, emphasizes the consultant. “Building a bridge there becomes difficult without repairing the dam, at least as long as the flow is what it is. »
On the other hand, the Kakhovka Reservoir was crucial in supplying water to Crimea and other Russian-controlled territories in southern Ukraine, via the North Crimean Canal. But this water supply was not restored by the Russians until 2022, after being cut off by Ukraine during the annexation of Crimea in 2014. The governor of Sevastopol Mikhail Razvojayev has also declared that the water supply of the largest city in Crimea “will not be affected in any way”.
The floods also affect defense structures and Russian supply routes. But the Kremlin could very well have decided to sacrifice them to favor the priority military objective: to block the road to the Ukrainian counter-offensive in preparation. “In the short term, it hurts the Ukrainians more”, according to Mark Cancian, expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, with the “Washington Post”. Now that the floods have ruled out any possibility of an attack on the Dnieper, “the Russians can move their troops who were posted on the river to defend more threatened areas”.
Russian troops seized the dam at the start of the invasion, at the end of February 2022, and set up a military base there. “It is physically impossible to blow it up by outside bombardment. It was mined by the Russian occupiers, and they blew it up”Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday afternoon. “A modern dam is a major civil engineering work. He doesn’t jump by accident, says Stéphane Audrand. It takes a very large quantity of explosives, well placed. We can therefore exclude from the outset the shell fallen by chance. We are therefore most likely in intentional, premeditated blasting. »
“No material interest in blowing it up”
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank that follows the Ukrainian conflict on a daily basis, said on Tuesday that it was not “not ready to assess responsibilities” in the destruction of the dam but note: “We predicted in October 2022 that the Russians would do it. This forecast had proven to be inaccurate at the time, but the reasoning behind it was and remains valid. »
At the time, the ISW believed it possible that Russian troops would blow up this Kakhovka barrage to cover their retreat into Kherson Oblast and prevent Ukrainian forces from pursuing them deeper on the left bank of the Dnieper, and accuse Ukraine of it via a disinformation technique called false flag (“false flag”). “Ukraine has no material interest in blowing up the damwrote the ISW on October 21. The result would be the flooding of 80 Ukrainian cities and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people, while undermining an already precarious national electricity supply. »
“Russia, on the other hand, has every reason to seek to widen the river, which Ukrainian forces would have to cross to continue their counteroffensive. To claim that Russian forces would not blow up the dam because they were concerned about Crimea’s water supply is absurd. […] Russian officials have demonstrated their ability to supply Crimea with water indefinitely without access to the canal. »
Already in 1941
The risk of strikes on this strategic installation has been regularly brandished since the fall by the Ukrainians as well as the Russians. In October, Volodymyr Zelensky accused Moscow of having “mined the dam”. ” Lies “, had claimed the Russian occupation authorities. But another detail has been revealed in recent hours: the level of the reservoir had skyrocketed in the days preceding the disaster, as if the Russian troops had wanted to fill it to the maximum to deliberately aggravate the flood to come.
Destruction of this type, likely to seriously harm civilian populations, has been considered a war crime since 1949, under the additional protocol to the Geneva Conventions. “Dams, dykes and nuclear power stations shall not be attacked, even if they constitute military objectives, when such attacks can cause the release of these forces and, in consequently cause severe casualties in the civilian population”underlines Article 56.
Contemporary history has numerous examples in Europe of the destruction of dams and floods from a defensive or offensive perspective. In August 1941, the Red Army mined the massive Ukrainian barrage at Zaporizhia – already on the Dnieper – to slow down the German advance. A decision that had caused the death of thousands of civilians.
Source : Nouvelobs
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