ITUB4, BBDC4, BBAS3, Sanb11: One can get bad; Which can do well on 1T25?

Banks will take the field with their results in the first quarter promising to keep what they have been delivering. Already on April 30, the Santander (Sanb11) Reveals the figures.

According to BRADESCO BBIthere will be no surprises for the capital marketespecially since there were no major changes in business environment.

Finally, analysts expect discussions between banks to focus on new accounting changes and new credit private consignmentwhile results should be impacted by the seasonally weaker growth of the credit portfolio.

Analysts listed two points of interest:

1. Impacts of Accounting Changes of CMN Resolution No. 4966/21 (with full attention to provisions and changes in low accounting);
2. Expectations related to the new private payroll loans, which BBI expects Inter (with its low exposure to personal loans and significant availability of resources) and Nubank are the main beneficiaries of the product;

“Regarding net profit expectations, the first trimester usually shows a seasonally weaker performance, with slower credit portfolio expansion, while default tends to deteriorate.”

Among the papers, all banks can be discharged from profit, except for the Banco do Brasil (BBAS3).

See what to expect from each bank below:

Will Banco do Brasil get bad?

The BB is expected to have a year to be pressed, according to the BBI, with net income of R $ 8.7 billion (a 9% drop in the quarter and 6.2% over the previous year).

• Glossary: ROE (Return on Equity)or return on equity, measures the profitability of a company in relation to the capital invested by shareholders. It is calculated by dividing net income by net equity. The higher the ROE, the more efficient the institution.

And more than that. BBI sees the ROE retreating 3 percentage points, to 18.6%. Thus, the BB would be below the ‘magic number’ looked by the market, of a ROE of 20%.

According to the house, the figure would reflect higher provisions, as rural default remains pressured, while net interest rates can be impaired by revenues with floating
smaller, due to seasonally weaker deposits

Disclosure Day: May 13

Santander

For Santander, the BBI awaits higher provisions compensated for lower expenses.

Is expected net profit R $ 3.8 billion, with ROAE of 16.4%, as the highest provisional expenses, due to the new accounting rules, can be compensated for lower expenses.

Disclosure Day: April 30

Bradesco

According to GenialIt is expected that the Osasco Bank will have a net profit of R $ 5.42 billion, virtually stable compared to the fourth quarter (up 0.3% t/t), but with a good advance of +28.7% in the year.

This, according to the house, will reflect a weak comparison base in early 2024.

“The quarter tends to be wealthywhich limits more significant sequential advances – we estimated a ROE of 13.4%still below the cost of capital of the institution ”.

Disclosure Day: May 7

Itaú

For Bradesco BBI, expectations for 2025 will hardly change.

The broker expects the bank to present net income of R $ 11.1 billion (growth of 1.7% in the quarter and 13.3% compared to the previous year).

Roae can go to 22.4%, impaired by a slower margin expansion in the first quarter, due to the smaller number of calendar days, but without major surprises on the other lines.

“In turn, we hope that tariffs and operating expenses will follow seasonal trends.”

Disclosure Day: May 8