The dollar in sight has gained strength with strong US data and Trump fees agreement; Super Wednesday also entered the radar (Image: Reuters/Ricardo Moraes)
THE dollar He began the falling session before the Real, but gained strength throughout the session with investors attentive to US negotiations with commercial partner countries, commodity weakness, and expectation for monetary policy decisions.
This Monday (5), the dollar in sight (USDBRL) ended the negotiations with R $ 5.6899, with a 0.62% increase compared to the real.
The movement detached the trend seen abroad. Around 17h (Brasília time), the Dxyindicator that compares the dollar to a basket of six global currencies as euro and poundfell 0.26%, at 99.766 points.
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What did you move with the dollar today?
The dollar had another gain session with US President Donald Trump’s tariffs at the center of attention and stronger economic data than expected.
The US Service Sector Shopping Managers Index (PMI) increased from 50.8 in March to 51.6 in April, according to the Supply Management Institute. The economists consulted by Reuters fell to 50.2.
A reading of PMI over 50 indicates growth in the service sector, which is responsible for more than two thirds of the US economy. The institute associates a reading over 49 over time with the growth of the economy as a whole.
Yesterday (4), the White House chief said the US is meeting with many countries, including China, to deal with commercial agreements, and that its main priority with Beijing is to secure a fair trade agreement.
Already today (5), US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US is close to closing business agreements with several partners, but stressed that China still has resistance to negotiations.
“We are very close to closing some business agreements, some will come maybe this week,” he said. “I am highly confident that 17 business partners, excluding China, presented very good business proposals,” the secretary said in an interview with CNBC.
According to him, Trump’s charges, tax cuts, tax cuts, and deregulation will work together to boost long -term investment in the country’s economy, adding that the country’s financial markets are “antifragile” and will resist any short -term turbulence.
Regarding Brazil, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad talked to Bessent about US tariff policy last Sunday (4). The head of the economic portfolio said the two countries are negotiating the “terms of an understanding.”
In the domestic scenario, the weakening of the real was pulled by the performance of commodities. Investors repercussions the Focus report, albeit in the background. Economists consulted by the Central Bank reduced the projection for inflation for the first time by 17 weeks, from 5.55% to 5.53% in 2025 and adjusted the estimate for Selic at the end of the year from 15% to 14.75%.
The exchange rate also operated on expectation for monetary policy decisions in the US and Brazil next Wednesday (7). In the world’s largest economy, interest is expected to be maintained in the 4.25% to 4.50% per year, with some signs of starting the Cut of Federal Reserve (Fed) cycle in June.
Here, the market expects the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) to raise Selic to 0.5th percentage point to 14.75% per year. In the B3 Copom Options market, the pricing was 74.75% probability of Selic’s 50-point up this week (compared to 62.50% in the previous session) in the latest update of last Friday (2).
*With information from Reuters
Source: Moneytimes
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