BB Dividends (BBAS3) Under pressure: Analysts question state projections

At the beginning of the year, the Banco do Brasil (BBAS3) released their projections (guidance) with the expectation of distributing 40% to 45% of their profit to shareholders.

Called Payout, the figure was already a change compared to 2024.

While last year, BB predicted to pay 45%, this year BB left a tolerance band, with space to pay less dividends.

And the number can get even worse. After weak results in the first quarter, analysts believe that BB will not be able to deliver what it has promised.

Remembering that profit projections, risk cost and financial margin They are paralyzed due to uncertainties. In the first stage of the year, The state -owned company has made R $ 7 billionwhen the market expected $ 9 billion.

THE ROE (Return on Equity) It also collapsed to 16.7%, while default exploded, as did provisions.

All of this made home review their calculations.

In the report of the last Wednesdaythe JPMORGAN wrote that the current Payout can become unsustainableconsidering both portfolio growth and pressure on capital.

Payout expectation was reduced to 30%, against previous expectation of 40-45%, to protect capital.

THE Itaú BBA also diminished dividend projections, with dividend yield estimated at 6%, below recent levels, and expectation of 30%payout, against the 40-45%range of guidance BB official.

The institution itself already admits that it can decrease distributed profit.

In report of Goldman Sachswho talked to the administration, Banco do Brasil indicated that it does not want the payment of dividends to disturb the expansion of the credit portfolio.

“Depending on operational trends, the bank may reassess its current payout index of 40% to 45%,” the bank wrote.

Dividends of Banco do Brasil still attractive?

If BB has lost space in the purchase recommendations, in terms of dividends, it is still seen as an interesting option. Six houses still recommend the role – one of them, the Harvest.

According to the bank, the bank’s favorable founding structure supports the monetary tightening cycle, and the high interest rates should benefit the margin of deposits.

Unlike the market, the crop maintains that, even with a more challenging scenario for agribusiness, which pressures the default rates, the ROE Bank should remain above 20% by 2025.

“Additionally, we hope the bank will maintain a good dividend payment flow.”

THE dividend yield Estimated to BB is 11.3%, according to the crop.

Exaggeration?

But when the market is overly pessimistic, is that a good time to get on paper? After all, BB is still a solid institution, crossing a bad time.

According to Régis Chinchila, from TERRA INVESTMENTSYes, the market may have reacted exaggeratedly. According to him, the recent movement in BB actions reflects more perception adjustment than an effective deterioration of the fundamentals.

“Increased default, especially in rural credit, was seen with concern, but is being closely monitored and does not at this time compromise the bank’s financial health.”

He recalls that the bank also projects growth in the credit portfolio and maintains a good generation of recurring results, even in a scenario of high interest rates and political volatility.

“Historically, the bank has shown resilience in adverse cycles, and current pricing may be more linked to short -term fear than long -term effective risks.”

On the other hand, report of the JPMORGAN Play cold water in this thesis. The bank reduced the target price of R $ 31 to R $ 28which represents a potential for the discharge of 28% in relation to closure, but maintained the recommendation in neutral.

Analysts are direct: problems of Quality of Assets – Especially in the rural wallet – they usually take to be resolved. That is, betting now on a recovery can be risky.