Dollar ignores job creation stronger than expected in the US and drops to $ 5.40, at the lowest level in more than one year

THE dollar There was another loss session before the realeven after new data from the labor market of United States stay above expectations and reinforce the prospect of maintenance of interest in the United States.

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This Thursday (3), the dollar in sight (USDBRL) ended the negotiations with R $ 5,4050, with a drop of 0.28% – at the lowest level since June 24, 2024.

The movement Detaled The trend seen abroad. Around 17h (Brasília time), the Dxyindicator that compares the dollar to a basket of six global currencies, such as euro and poundrose 0.40% to 97,175 points.

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What did you move with the dollar today?

In the domestic scenario, the dollar extended the losses of the eve supported by the valorization of commodities Metallic, while caution with the fiscal scenario continued on the radar.

Emerging countries and commodity exporters, such as Brazil, are positively impacted by increasing raw material prices, such as the iron ore – which advanced 2.45% today and the ton was above $ 100 in Dalian, in China.

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Investors continued to monitor the tension between the executive and the legislature on changes in the tax on financial operations (IOF).

This week, the federal government filed a lawsuit in the Federal Supreme Court (STF) Against the overthrow of the presidential decree that provided for raising the IOF rates for exchange, credit to companies and private pension.

“Certainly the maintenance of high interest rates longer here in Brazil and the increase in the differential of interest compared to the US are factors that can justify a real valuing the dollar. The dollar has been losing strength globally in recent months, including here in Brazil, where we observe a possible resumption of purchases by foreign investor, who seeks to anticipate what may be to come,” said Anderson Silva, head of the variable and partner. WG Capital.

Dollar rises abroad

Abroad, the dollar gained strength before the global currencies after the official job report, the Payroll, June come stronger than expected.

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Payroll pointed to the creation of 147,000 vacancies in June, above the expectation of 110,000 jobs open in the month.

The unemployment rate slowed from 4.2% in May to 4.1% in June, below projections of advance to 4.3%.

After the data, financial agents reduced the cuttings of interest on the interest rates by Federal Reserve (Fed, the US Central Bank) at the next meeting of the Federal Market Federal Committee (Fomcin the acronym), which happens later this month. In closing the markets, the probability of reduction fell from 23.8% yesterday to 4.7% today, according to the CME Group’s Fedwatch tool.

Already the chances of interest maintenance in the next decision of the FOMC rose from 76.2% to 95.3% after Payroll. Today, US interest rates are in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% per year.

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“The strong number of job creation brings an expectation of continuing the robust growth of the American economy, which encourages greater capital flows to the country, especially corporate theses, after a period of fear of economic slowdown or firmer recession, now replaced by the impression that the loss of rhythm will not bring stronger shocks,” Paula Zogbi, Nomad’s chief strategist.

Investors also monitored US commercial negotiations with partner countries. Yesterday (2), the President Donald Trump He announced that he came to a commercial agreement with Vietnam.

Already on Wednesday (3), the Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said that if commercial agreements are not closed until the due date of tariff breaks next week, it will be up to President Trump to decide whether the breaks will be extended or not.

The temporary truce of reciprocal tariffs ends next Wednesday (9).

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The US fiscal scenario also continued on the radar. Trump’s budget package, known as “Beautiful Bill“It was approved in the House of Representatives in the late afternoon. The article goes to the sanction of President Trump.

According to the Congress Budget Office, the bill will reduce tax revenue by US $ 4.5 trillion over 10 years and cut spending by $ 1.1 trillion.