After the peak, the curve of the Covid-19 epidemic slows the descent in the United Kingdom and Greece, and in France, it seems to be at its peak, but then it rears up: there is a question mark on the evolution of the pandemic in Europe , as in Italy, and caution is needed in easing containment measures: this is indicated by the analyzes of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for the Applications of Calculation ‘M. Picone’, of the National Research Council (Cnr).
The analysis of the weekly differences in the incidence curve of the positives of the European states reveals that “after leaving the peak behind, the United Kingdom and Greece are in a phase of decline, but in the last 2-4 days they have suffered a slowdown in degrowth. The situation is more worrying for France, where the same analysis shows that, when the peak is reached, there does not seem to be a phase of decline, but a new and significant increase. The data for the next few days – observes Sebastiani – they will be critical for all three states to understand if it is a real change or if they are random fluctuations “.
According to the expert, “these results, together with the slowdown in the drop in the percentage of positives in molecular tests and the stagnation, in many provinces, of the incidence of total positives, which have been detected in recent days in our country, suggest an attitude of prudence and a slow and gradual easing of the containment measures of the epidemic. Unless we follow the same strategy of the United Kingdom which, with the reopening of late spring, has released the measures to contain the spread much more than ours did. Village”. In this regard, the expert observes, however, that “not enough clarity has been made on the fact that the type of relaxation of the measures adopted in the United Kingdom has had a non-negligible cost, for example in terms of mortality”, considering that “since 1 June 2021 to 20 January 2022 total mortality in the United Kingdom was about 39 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, about 50% more than the value found in Italy in the same period, equal to about 27 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants “.
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Source From: Ansa
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