Minimum wage decision is pending: If things go bad, Schwarz-Rot falls into a crisis

The independent minimum wage commission announces its recommendation for a statutory minimum wage in 2026 and 2027 on Friday. The decision has the potential to plunge black and red into a coalition crisis. What you need to know: the overview.

Why is the explosive power so big?

15 euros minimum wage, that was a core claim of the SPD in the Bundestag election campaign 2025. Here is a heart topic of the social democrats: It is about the people who “keep the country going”, as it is said so often, also a better pension later and a relief of the social security funds by good wages. Many in the SPD say: Either the minimum wage commission delivers the desired 15 euros – or politics must intervene.

At the coalition partner Union, the SPD would thus encounter granite types. Because here one is more obvious to the perspective of the economy: the complain that such a significant increase from currently 12.82 euros to 15 euros would be a massive burden for the German companies that are already under great pressure.

Who has the coalition agreement on his side?

The SPD has emphasized a coalition agreement since the agreement, where 15 euros have been negotiated. But that’s not the case.

The contract deals with the criteria on which the Commission will be oriented, then the conclusion comes: “In this way, a minimum wage of 15 euros can be reached in 2026.”

However, there is no hard determination, especially since the sentence before is explicitly mentioned that the Commission has to make an “overall assessment”. And with an overall assessment, none of the individual criteria is decisive alone.

Maybe the employers agree to 15 euros?

This is not to be expected. One of the commission members is Steffen Kampeter, general manager of the employers’ associations. He made it publicly clear what he thinks of the 15 euros. The “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung” he said that the number was missing “every rational basis”. He spoke of “wage populism” and an “economic Ascension Command”.

Drums are of course part of the shop, and yet the front lines are clear. The question is whether you agree on a compromise across these front lines that both sides can live with.

The recommendation is always pronounced for two years, a two -stage recommendation with a value for 2026 and a higher one for 2027 would be possible, which may then come closer to the magical 15.

For the SPD, the central question is what a possible 14 must be behind the comma so that a minimum wage can still be sold as “almost 15”. 14.92 euros would also be okay, said SPD general secretary Tim Klüssendorf in the “Report from Berlin”.

What history does the work of the Commission do so delicate?

The minimum wage commission is occupied with three people each for workers and employers. In addition, as chairman Christiane Schönefeld, which neither of the two sides belongs, but is also entitled to vote. It was a member of the board of the Federal Employment Agency until 2022. Two scientists are advised by the Commission.

In 2022, the traffic light had set 12 euros in a minimum wage by law without participating in the commission to redeem a promise of election campaign by the then Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD). At the next regular advice, the revenge occurred: Together with the chairperson, employers enforced a lower increase than the unions were acceptable, which reacted massively. Since then, the question has been the question of whether the Commission can still decide together.

The fundamental will for this is there, the Commission has also given itself a new rules of procedure to confirm the will for constructive cooperation. But the practical test is still pending.

Which scenarios are conceivable for the decision?

It is only clear that the Commission will be public on Friday. An agreement is conceivable. Depending on which numbers are on the table, the question would be how the SPD in particular reacts.

But it is also conceivable that the commission cannot agree and dies apart in dissent. That would be an extremely delicate location for black and red.

It cannot be ruled out that the chairman of the Commission once again makes the rash in one direction or the other. However, it is also the declared goal of the chairman Schönefeld to prevent this. The Commission has given itself a new rules of procedure to strengthen the process towards a common vote.

In this procedure, an orientation to 60 percent of the middle income of all employees is mentioned as a criterion. It is a great success of the unions to have negotiated this into the rules of procedure. These 60 percent are also mentioned as an indicator in an EU directive, and this would result in about 15 euros, which leads the SPD into the field.

However, the determination of this 60 percent is neither binding in the EU directive itself, nor is it clear what binding effect the directive for Germany has in general. In addition, in the end it is always about the already mentioned overall assessment, which according to the Commission’s rules of procedure.

How could politics react?

Usually, the federal government only makes the commission’s proposal binding by the law. But she does not have to, but she could set a different minimum wage by law.

But as described, the willingness to the Union is zero. So if the commission cannot agree or suggests a value with which the SPD cannot live-then Schwarz-Red has a big problem.

“I hope that will work unanimously,” said CDU general secretary Carsten Linnemann on Monday to announcement of the minimum wage commission. He emphasized the independence of the committee. “The starting point is clear,” said Linnemann. The minimum wage is determined by the Commission, not by politics. (Cooperation: Felix Hackenbruch)