A heat wave, again. It is not surprising that such extremes meet us more and more: Germany has Compared to the pre -industrial period already heated by 2.5 degrees. This is how the German Weather Service (DWD) has been showing it since the beginning of April.
Is that a lot?
That is a lot. In fact, the DWD previously assumed 1.9 degrees more since 1881. However, the calculation method that led to this number was overtaken by reality.
The global warming refers to the middle annual air temperature A height of two meters above the ground. So far, the German Weather Service has pulled a straight line through the average temperatures of past decades that showed the average increase in temperature over the entire period.
In this respect, this old method is no longer suitable to describe the temperature rise sufficiently precisely.
Andreas WalterDWD climatologist
But: “The climate system is just not linear,” said DWD climateologist Andreas Walter the German press agency. In recent years, a disproportionately strong increase in temperature has been observed. “In this respect, this old method is no longer suitable to describe the temperature rise sufficiently precisely.” It could not show accelerated developments.
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How do you expect instead now?
At the so-called Loess procedurefor which the DWD has chosen, the neighbors nearby are considered for each point. The neighboring points are more important for the curve the closer you are at the point. With the annual middle temperatures, short -term fluctuations such as phases of cooling or accelerated warming can be mapped.
The result is a more realistic assessment of the actual increase in temperature. Also future changes such as one Possible slowdown of warming by climate protection measures can be seen faster. Nothing has changed on the data basis.
How do others do that?
The world weather organization (WMO) In addition to your own data, the data of national weather services relies – so far, international calculations have been a mix of old and new lawsuit. In Austria, the Netherlands and Switzerland, for example, the LOESS procedure is also used by the weather services.
Wasn’t there anything at 1.5 degrees?
Yes. The international community wants Stop global warming at 1.5 degrees to limit the worst climate sequences. The year 2024 has already torn the border. The goal is officially only considered to be a mistake after several years of exceeding.
In order to be able to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees, you should The emissions of climate -damaging greenhouse gases But sink very quickly and very strongly. In addition, large amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would have to be withdrawn again.
What are concrete consequences of warming?
According to the Federal Environment Agency and German Weather Service, the warming leads to among other things more common heat waves and drought phaseswhich endangers agriculture and drinking water supply and the risk of forest fire increases.
There have been many thousand heat note in Germany in recent years – also because of the comparatively old population. More damage caused by stronger storms are added. (dpa)
Source: Tagesspiegel
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