The world does not reach. Trump’s further action logic

With a great fate of probability, negotiations are finally torn. But our further fate will still depend on the position of the US president. Therefore, we need to try to understand his logic.

So what does Trump think?

1. Both sides of guilt. Everyone, however, is guilty of their own. For us, the statement of Witkof about the territories that Ukraine does not want to share, on the one hand, is weak (no one wants to share territories in the world). On the other hand, it is important that, despite the rhetoric, no one makes us sign such a document. And there is an opportunity in the USA.
2. At the same time, the Russians did not receive and did not receive any concession, because they did not sign a truce. The sanctions will be applied, and I do not exclude that they will intensify. In parallel, the Persian Gulf countries began to play the price of oil and expand their exports. This is the main consequence of the trade wars that Trump began.
3. I think that the agreement on our subsoil provides for the continuation of the US military and technical assistance, which is now important. The only thing that is now worth emphasizing is that the rhetoric that I hear now is the words that Trump failed. It is profitable for us to say that negotiations were torn by Putin. But anti -American (anti -ishoicism) often wins common sense in external communication.
4. Now, almost finally, we can say that the negotiations of the United States and Ukraine are becoming the most important for us (a link for a preliminary post, where much was written in the comments). Now I will just give a quote from this post: Trump is now leading a super complex game with the EU. The topic of agreements is to ignition of duties and an order of $ 300 billion for weapons from the United States. In fact, this is an answer to almost mirror sentences from China. The loss of these negotiations is Beijing’s victory in the geopolitical battle for Europe. This is the main war in the world, regardless of how unpleasant it was for us. Victory in negotiations is the creation of the US Free Trade Zone, and in the future Japan, PD. Korea, Australia and Great Britain. Simply put, the richest world. These negotiations will come for several months. We are only at the beginning of this process. But again, this is the main geopolitical game of the world.
5. In parallel, the United States is preparing to negotiate with China. Even the contours of these negotiations are unclear. But they, with a certain fate, will be a prologue from the next round of negotiations in our war. And this round will take place at the end of 2025, the beginning of 2026.

Now we need to prepare for the difficult military summer. Putin puts on this summer, like Hitler on Zundervaffa. And, despite the economic problems and the economic crisis that can occur if oil is persisted at the current level over the next 4-6 months, Putin will now be a lot to come on. And we just need to get out of the electoral logic of actions and rhetoric. Although this is from the category of fiction.

And the last. Trump left himself for 5-7 days to try to break Putin’s position. Despite the inexorable probability of such a scenario, there is a minimum window.