Transnistria bet: how Russia can use a hybrid enclave and that its purification can be transmitted to Ukraine

Last week, Moldova President May Sandu said that Russia could send up to 10,000 soldiers to Trannesus under the guise of the civilian population. And the use of the cover for their security forces – civil flights and diplomatic passports. But if threats from Russia are growing, does it make sense to solve the main reason – to clean the enclave? And if so, why Ukraine can be interested in Moldova in this matter?

Read more about this – in the material of the joint project OBOZ.UA and the Information Resistance groupField

The words of the President of Moldova about threats from the Russian security forces, which, under the guise of civilian population, penetrate into Transnistria, were actually confirmed by the secretary of the High Security Council of the Republic Stanislav Secer. He recalled that Russia “does not need soldiers in shape” – for a hybrid war there are enough people ”in jeans,” as was done during the USSR.

In Russia itself, calls for a change in power in Chisinaau have repeatedly heard, attracting its resource in transitia. In addition, Russia is a sponsor and patron of almost the entire professional “opposition” in Moldova, which regularly destabilizes the country.

In 2022, the Russian command examined the double strike script in the Odessa region With the help of a landing operation on the coast of the region and the offensive from the territoryThe field and, despite the complete failure of landing on Odessa in 2022, the very idea of ​​using PMR as a stroke to influence the region is still alive in the gloomy hunts of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

In fact, threats from Transnistria come to Moldova and Ukraine. In the end, the destabilization of a neighboring country and in the most common scenario, the seizure of forces of the proceedings in the Russian forces in Trampers is a direct threat to us in the short term. And a strong solution to the problem with PMR is inevitable. But the fact that Moldova’s own forces is not enough to solve this problem, and cannot do it without help.

And who, without any obligations to any political and military alliances, alliances, could help Moldova in this matter? Of course, this is not Romania.

But before moving on to rather prose conclusions, we must first answer the question of what Russian conditional and illegal armed education in PMR is, and why do we need it?

The contingent of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the NFF in PMR

The contingent in Transnistria should be divided into Russian OCRV groups and illegal armed formations of Transnistrian.

The number of Russian contingent is 1,700 people. But NZF on the territory of Transnistria-a 7.5 thousand people or, relatively speaking, 9-11 tactical groups of the battalion (BTGR).

The illegal Armed Forces of PMR have been in the struggle with readiness “constant” since 2022, and the Russian group has served in an improved mode. Places of their main concentration are two objects in Transnistria:

– the 1411st composition of the storage of artillery ammunition (sausage village), in the intestines of which up to 22 thousand tons of ammunition is in storage, most of which exceeded the maximum storage period;

– Tiprafa airfield.

Places of units in the operational group of Russian troops:

– 82nd OMSB (Bender);

– 113rd OMSB (Tirapol);

– 540s separate control battalion and MTZ (Tipraf);

– 450 military hospital (Tirapol);

– a branch of the Russian Military Prosecutor’s Office and the Department of Military Counterintelligence of the FSB of the Russian Federation (Traspol).

As for the illegal armed formations “PMR”, their equipment is as follows:

TANKS-ABOUT 11 capable modifications VTI T-64B/BV and T-72. About 30 T-64B/BV, T-72 and T-55 tanks are incompetent;

BBM-A ABOUT 150 BMP-1/2 type of combat vehicles, BTR-60 \ 70 \ 80, BDM-2 and MT-LB, some of which are disabled with the impossibility of repair;

Spring artillery is 60 units consisting of 122 mm howitzers D-30, 85 mm D-44 divisions and 100 mm anti-tank guns MT-12.

RSSV-OBOUT 20 units in 122-mm BM-21 “GRAD”/VV-21.

Based on the number of battle, or if you make the total number of equipment, the conclusion is one: units of NFF “PMR” do not have full combat personnel.

Now let’s answer the question – why do we generally spend time on PMR?

The benefit of Transnistria

In order not to misunderstand the situation, at first I will explain that in unilaterally Ukraine will not work in transitics. An official official request from the President Modova Mia Sandu Pressest of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky is required, and then a decision will be decided.

That is, only at the official level, and not on the character, to fly in PMR and organize an audit in sausage. And now, go to the advantages of Transnistria cleaning.

Firstly, this is the safety of the region. We will reduce the appendicitis of the Russian measure that is equally concerned about Moldova and Ukraine. To control the situation after that, I think he will have to leave the contingent to help Moldovan forces, but he will be much less than these forces, and means that this area complicates the fourth year in the Odessa region.

Let me remind you that there are three areas in Ukraine – Transnistria, the border with Belarus and the border with Russia. There are forces and means necessary to get ahead of threats from potentially dangerous areas of the border. And if it were not for these zones, the corresponding forces could be aimed at increasing the front regions.

Therefore, the first plus is more than obvious.

Secondly, Salos. Currently, it is from 19 to 22 thousand tons of ammunition of various nomenclature, from 152 mm and 122 mm with shots for became an artillery of up to 80 mm of uncontrolled Aviation missiles C-8 and PTKR 9M113. The capture of this object under the control of the defense forces of Ukraine will give us the opportunity to provide artillery units (and not only) ammunition for 3 months or even a more continuous fire.

Even the BC, which will be considered transparent, will go for processing. Sorry, and TNTICE is everywhere and always at a price!

In general, the composition in the sausage is already an important reason for coordination with Transnistria cleaning transaction, if such a request comes from official Chisinau.

Third captains. Thanks to this operation, we will be able to significantly increase the exchange fund, not only the usual composition, but also the large network of representatives of the Russian FSB and the State Security Service of the Russian Federation (GRU), which, under the guise of civilian population, operates in Trendria. And this, by the way, is mostly officers.

Agreements with Chisinaau in order to perform such an operation as for me, we should be the same character: we clean the “Russian Measure” application, you must go into control over sausage, all trophy weapons and OGRV and NZF equipment, as well as all Russian captives.

Conclusions

It is important to clean in Transnistria in Transnistria. It is also the creation of a controlled security zone, and not a network for threats, which is PMR. He is also access to a large warehouse, many of which we need. This is the replenishment of the exchange fund. Moreover, many officers who are of insignificant importance in which you can begin to demand Azov, the exchange of which sabotes the country of the aggressor.

For Moldova, this is a return to the legal area of ​​the territory, which was rejected for more than three decades and was influenced by the occupation country. Yes, this threatens social and political problems, as it will be difficult and even impossible to change the views of the majority of the PMR population. And this creates preliminary conditions for strengthening the position of the “opposition”, and the decision will be temporary deprivation of the voting right in the elections of the inhabitants of Transnetriya. In general, we will have to apply similar measures for ourselves when temporary occupied territories will be produced, especially in 2014.

But in any case, Moldova is the issue of restoring the integrity and stabilization of the situation in the region, for the USA it is all the above advantages. That’s right – “green light” from Chisinau.