In April 2025, the Cryptocalcrent Polymarket bookmarks set the absolute entry for the number of launched markets (Ponds markets) – more than 7000. This is 20.7% more than in March, when about 5800 (previous record) was created.
According to the bloc, the growth that began at the end of 2024 is gaining only the impulse, although the activity at the auction fell slightly, the number of active merchants sat from January of the peak of 462 thousand to 330 thousand in April. This may indicate a small blur: the market is becoming larger, but the HAAP is smaller for everyone.
According to the platform estimates, the total rates made in April are slightly less than $ 900 million – almost three times less than the January record ($ 2.6 billion). This indicates the displacement of accents – users now show a more thoughtful approach, thoughtful launch and adhere to quality mechanics. This may indicate the transition of the market from crazy Hippe to a more mature phase.
The biggest stir at the polymarket is currently observed in sports categories, in particular in markets related to the results of the NBA and Champions League championship. In second place are geopolitical forecasts. Thus, among the most discussed markets, there is an execution in American Chinese trade relations and the conflict between India and Pakistan.
Earlier, Polymarket was recognized as quite accurate in the issue of forecasts of events that should take place. According to the results of a study conducted by a data processing specialist Alex McCallou, in the markets of the polymarket “clearly traced bias” to the main reasons that he attributed:
- tendency to agreement;
- herd instinct;
- Low liquidity.
According to the analyst, a month before the resolution of the event will reach a fairly high level in the field of 90%. At the same time, Maccal believes that investors, as a rule, overestimate the probability of an event by only 1-2 points.
At the same time, long forecasts are more accurate, because they usually have unlikely elements. For example, 17 candidates were announced in the presidential election of the platform, but only candidates from the main parties – Donald Trump and Kamal Harris – were obvious.
Earlier, OBOZ.UA said that Polymarket was subjected to such a lightweight “control”. This allowed one user to fake the results of the events related to Ukraine by $ 7 million.
Source: Obozrevatel
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