Petrobras (Petr4): OPEC+ defines a new production increase this Saturday; Understand the risks to the action

The meeting of OPEC+scheduled for this Saturday (5), can bring new elements to the oil market – and thus impact the actions of Petrobras (PETR4). The group should announce a new production increase of 411 thousand barrels per day (BPD) to August, the fourth month followed by discharge in Global offer.

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For Ruy Hungary, an analyst at Empiricus Research, the movement is already widely priced. “The market will be aware of what will be signaled for the next meeting in August: whether it will increase again (which would be bad) or not (which would be positive). What I have read is that we must have another increase, which is bad, but not that unexpected either.”

Jeff Patzlaff, CFP Financial Planner and investment specialist, agrees that the increase of 411,000 BPD is already “widely anticipated” and incorporated into current oil prices.

“Even with rumors that this volume could be larger, there was no official announcement in this regard. Still, factors such as internal tensions on OPEC+, with countries such as Russia, Algeria and Oman defending moderation in increases, can influence the market reaction”He explains.

Patzlaff estimates that if this most cautious wing prevails, prices may even rise. On the other hand, an unexpected increase above 411 thousand BPD – although unlikely – It could cause new low pressure on quotes.

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“The geopolitical environment, especially after the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, still contributes to the maintenance of a certain risk prize, supporting the Brent around $ 75 per barrel in the short term,” he adds.

Impacts on Petrobras

The possible expansion of global offer exerts direct pressure on oil prices, which affects the margins of Petrobras. “If the market understands that the 411 thousand BPD are already accommodated, the impact may be limited. But a higher increase or acceleration signs in production tend to intensify the negative bias for action,” says Patzlaff.

He points out, however, that domestic factors such as exchange rates, price policy, tax burden and eventual government interventions can also interfere with the company’s performance. “The main short -term driver, however, will remain the behavior of international oil prices. ”

Possible scenarios

Patzlaff draws three possible scenarios for the market:

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• Positive: Increase maintained at 411 thousand BPD and market focus on geopolitical tensions or the resilience of global demand. This would support prices or even cause light high, favoring Petr4.

• Negative: Indication of stronger advancement in production or signs of weakness weakness (eg recession in Europe). In this case, prices would fall and further press the state’s action.

• Most likely: Maintenance of the expected increase, with the market by balancing concerns about the supply and regional tensions. “This scenario should keep Brent between $ 68 and $ 72 per barrel, and Petr4 in a neutral track until the end of the third quarter, unless there is some relevant external shock,” he says.

With the oil quoted at $ 65 per barrel in 2025, the Santander estimates that the state -owned company could distribute US $ 7.3 billion in dividends, Which represents a dividend yield of approximately 9%, in line with the global pairs.

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Oil today

Future oil prices fell slightly on US holiday negotiations on Friday, with the market waiting for OPEC+ meeting this weekend.

Future Brent oil prices fell by 0.7%to $ 68.30 per barrel, while US West Texas intermediate oil fell 0.75%at $ 66.50, around 4:20 pm GMT. Trade was scarce due to the US Independence Day holiday.

Brent was about 0.8% higher than last Friday’s closure and WTI was about 1.5% higher.

*With information from Reuters