Dollar rises at $ 5.54 with Trump’s ‘tariff’ over Brazil

THE dollar engaged strongly for the second time in a row with the import tariffs announced by the president of United States, Donald Trump.

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This Thursday (10), the dollar in sight (USDBRL) ended the negotiations with R $ 5.5452, with a 0.78%increase.

The movement accompanied the trend seen abroad. Around 17h (Brasília time), the Dxyindicator that compares the dollar to a basket of six global currencies, such as euro and poundrose 0.07%at 97,629 points.

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What did you move with the dollar today?

The import tariffs imposed by the president of the United States continued to concentrate the attention of investors in Brazil and abroad.

Yesterday (9), Donald Trump announced a 50% rate on Brazilian products – the largest rate among the 22 countries that participated in this second round of the “tariff”. The White House head linked the decision to the treatment received by the former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is defendant of inquiry in the Federal Supreme Court (STF) on charges of planning a coup d’état.

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Thus, the new rates must come into force on August 1.

In response on the same day, the president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva He stated that Brazil is a sovereign country with independent institutions and “that it will not accept to be protected by anyone.” He also said that the commercial measure will be answered “in the light” of the economic reciprocity law.

The government’s position was reaffirmed on Thursday (10). In part of an interview published by Record’s portal R7, Lula reiterated that “if he [Trump] Charging 50% of us, we will charge 50% of it ”.

The Chief Executive also mentions that Brazil can resort to the World Trade Organization (WTO) against Trump’s tariffs. The full is scheduled to be published tonight.

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The economic data was in the background. The National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), that measures inflation Official of Brazilrose 0.24% in June – a slowdown compared to 0.26% up in May. The indicator came above market projections, which pointed to a 0.23%advance, according to the latest Focus report.

In the accumulated 12 months, inflation accumulates high of 5.35% – above the goal pursued by the Central bank3% with tolerance of 1.5 percentage point up or down.

In Itaú’s assessment, despite the altist surprise in the index, the qualitative came close than expected. Active investments, in turn, pointed out that the result does not, in itself, represent a driver capable of changing the posture of the Central Bank.

It is expected that the president of the BC, Gabriel GalipoloDelivered a letter to the Ministry of Finance to explain the new burst of the inflation target. The document is a legal requirement whenever the accumulated 12 -month inflation exceeds the limit of the goal in a quarterly recurrence.

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Yesterday (9), Galipolo reaffirmed that all members of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) are “quite uncomfortable” with the discouraging market expectations for the inflationemphasizing that the BC chases the center of the goal.

Already in the United States, investors once again priced a possible retreat in Trump’s tariff policy, a movement called ‘Taco Trade.’ Federal Reserve (Fed, the US Central Bank).

Fed director Christopher Waller said the US BC could continue to reduce the balance sheet in order to return to a “size compatible with a broad reserve system” in a speech at the Dallas district headquarters.

The Balance Sheet of the Fed is currently $ 6.7 trillion, below the nearly $ 9 trillion peak a few years ago, but well above the levels prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

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In Waller’s view, the program, known as quantitative squeeze, can continue for some time and still provide the level of reservations that banks need to stay safe. He designed that the balance sheet would probably fall to $ 5.8 trillion.