‘Tariff’ and Taco Trade: XP analyzes Trump’s impact on Big Techs and S&P 500 this season of results

The second quarter corporate results season (2T25) approaches and the attention is focused on the Big Techslarge technology companies for United States.

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The analysts of XP Investments They published a report on the night of last Monday (14) evaluating the possible impact of commercial tariffs on the results of these companies in 2T25.

This is because the importance of Big Techs have been growing in S&P 500. Estimates point out that about two thirds of profit growth per action (LPA) The index comes from these companies at 2T25 – not only for the exponential growth of these companies, but also for the weakening of the other sectors of the American economy as a result of commercial tariffs.

Thus, in the midst of “tariff“US President Donald Trump and the movement of Taco Trade (Trump Always Chicken Outsomething like “Trump always retreats”), a sector as new as the technology branch tends to be impacted on several fronts.

An X-ray in the business of Big Techs

According to Raphael Figueredo and Maria Irene Jordão, analysts who sign the report, the dollar index (Dxyindicator that compares the dollar to a basket of six global currencies, such as euro and pound) suffered a devaluation of 9.8% in 2025.

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The weakness of the dollar is an important relief for companies with relevant international exhibition, such as Big Techswhich generate 53% of their revenues outside the United States. For comparison purposes, the average S&P 500 companies is 41%.

Nevertheless, the risk of climbing trade war remains present, which can generate retaliation from other countries. In XP’s view, digital service companies can become the target of these attacks, such as Alphabet (owner of Google) and Microsoftwhich increases regulatory and commercial uncertainty for the group as a whole.

On the other hand, the technology and communications segment (driven by Big Techs Like Alphabet, Meta and Netflix) are highlighted positively.

“Capex [gastos com bens de capital] It will remain a point of attention, especially in the case of the goal, where investors follow skeptical in relation to return deadlines, ”writes analysts.

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Thus, despite pressure on profitability due to commercial tariffs, the devaluation of the dollar should mitigate the impact on companies, especially those with the highest international exhibition.

Despite Big Techsoptimism takes over S&P 500

Regarding the S&P 500 index, XP is more categorical: “After a strong negative review in expectations over the second quarter of 2025 and in the face of still resilient economic data, we expect a positive surprise in S&P 500 profit growth for 2T25 results season”.

• See more: What are the minds behind large companies and great managers thinking? Find out on the Money Times Money Minds program; See here

For the year 2025, the S&P 500 LPA estimate fell to US $ 262.36, a 9.1% growth compared to 2024, while for 2026, the market remains optimistic, expecting a 14.0% growth in the annual comparison.

Analysts understand that expectations are more anchored, given the improvement in the ability of US companies in the face of an uncertain environment.

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In addition, low -quarter low -quarter reviews, made at times of stress, maintain a comparison base that should stimulate better results than expected.

Given this, analysts expect significant adjustments to the guidances for the second half of 2025 and for the year 2026, reflecting greater caution of companies amid the volatility of the macro scenario and strong sectoral discrepancy.