XP Investimentos expects Mix Free Market results on 2T25 (Image: Reuters/Disclosure Free Market)
The beginning of the disclosure of the balance sheets for the second quarter of 2025 (2T25) will start in July, with the numbers of Free market (MELI34) to be published on the 31st. In the view of XP Investmentsthe giant of e-commerce must deliver mixed results in the period.
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Analysts Danniela Eiger and Laryssa Sumer expect a solid growth from the revenue. But the company must present margins pressured by investments in marketing and freight reduction, as well as the continuous expansion of the portfolio of credit.
The gross volume of goods (GMV) should grow 21% on an annual base, with strong advances in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. Analysts observe a slight acceleration in CAGR (compound annual growth rate) in Brazil, due to the beginning of the free shipping campaign of $ 19, mainly supported by the volume of items sold.
“However, the rate of Take Rate (Revenue withdraws from the platform) from Brazil should fall 0.4 percentage point on an annual base due to the same effect, as the company gives up part of the freight revenue, ”ponders XP.
Regarding advertising, the house sees rapid growth, reaching 2.5% of the GMV in the quarter. As a result, the estimate is a 28% growth in annual comparison in net sales.
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The dynamics of fintech Paid market must remain unchanged. The total loan portfolio is expected to grow 77% on an annual base and 12% quarter to quarter as the company continues to expand its credit card portfolio at a rapid pace in the view of analysts.
Margins pressed in the free market
XP estimates a drop of 1.80 percentage point in the gross margin due to investments in logistics and free market financing cost.
Added to this, investments in marketing and higher provision should reduce the EBIT margin (profit before interest and taxes) by 1.90 percentage point year by year. Analysts point out that this estimate is above the XP -conducted survey, where about 60% expect the pressure to be less than 1.5 percentage point.
The house projects a net profit of US $ 606 million, a 14% increase in annual comparison.
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Source: Moneytimes
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